Forecast accuracy for wind and solar: MAE, RMSE and nRMSE explained
Learn what common forecast error metrics describe and what to check before comparing results.
Read further
Resources
Explore renewable forecasting concepts and decisions
Read explainers on forecast evaluation, trading, solar generation and renewable energy operations.
Virtual power plants explained: how they work and why forecasts matter
See where wind and solar forecasts fit into portfolio planning for a virtual power plant.
Read furtherThe duck curve explained: why solar forecasting matters
Understand how solar generation changes the shape of net demand and why timing matters.
Read furtherP50 vs P90: what exceedance values mean for wind and solar yield
Learn how P50 and P90 describe different levels of confidence in an energy-yield estimate.
Read furtherSolar irradiance explained: GHI, DNI, DHI and how forecasts work
Understand the radiation inputs behind a solar power forecast, their units and the checks that make comparisons meaningful.
Read further
GFS, ECMWF and AIFS: choosing weather models for renewable forecasts
There is no single weather model that is best for every renewable asset, lead time and weather situation.
Read furtherCapacity factor for wind and solar: formula and what drives it
Calculate capacity factor correctly and separate resource, availability and commercial constraints when interpreting it.
Read furtherProbabilistic and ensemble forecasts: understanding renewable uncertainty
An ensemble is a set of forecasts rather than a single forecast trajectory.
Read furtherSolar power forecasting: methods, horizons and evaluating a provider
Match solar forecasting methods to your decision horizon and design a fair asset-level evaluation.
Read furtherNowcasting for renewables: short-term wind and solar forecasts
Explore how fresh observations support near-term production decisions and how to test latency, ramps and fallback behaviour.
Read furtherRenewable energy curtailment: causes, costs and forecasting
Separate available generation from delivered output and understand how curtailment changes data, scheduling and evaluation.
Read furtherBESS revenue and forecasting: what storage operators need to know
Connect renewable forecasts with battery constraints and evaluate storage strategies without assuming a revenue guarantee.
Read furtherPower purchase agreements: how PPAs work and where forecast risk sits
Understand the production profile behind a PPA and identify the quantity, timing and operational assumptions a forecast must support.
Read furtherNumerical weather prediction for energy forecasting: a practical guide
Numerical weather prediction, usually shortened to NWP, estimates future atmospheric conditions from an analysed starting state and a model of atmospheric processes.
Read furtherWind turbine power curves: why they matter for forecasts
Understand the conversion from wind speed to power and why a measured plant rarely follows one ideal curve exactly.
Read furtherRenewable energy grid integration: challenges and forecasting
Understand how production uncertainty enters grid planning and operations, and where forecasting complements physical flexibility.
Read furtherDay-ahead vs intraday markets: how renewable forecasts shape trading
Connect forecast issue times and production revisions to electricity scheduling without confusing generation forecasts with price predictions.
Read furtherSolar performance ratio: calculation and the forecasting link
Calculate PV performance ratio with consistent boundaries and use it to investigate losses without treating it as a universal accuracy score.
Read furtherGet in touch
Put your forecasts to the test
Describe your assets, decision horizon and available measurements. Discuss the scope of a forecast evaluation with our team.
Discuss a backtest