The January 2021 article reported the completion of Project Prophesy at the end of 2020. enercast worked with Fraunhofer IEE and the University of Kassel on forecast uncertainty for wind and PV in future electricity systems. This is a historical completion report, not a new project announcement.
The reported simulation approach
The report described a tool for generating feed-in, forecasts and forecast-error time series for different scenarios. Measured feed-in and computed forecasts provided reference information, with error defined from their difference. The objective was to represent possible future-system behaviour rather than treating one realised historical period as the only plausible outcome.
Factors identified in the analysis
The article discussed wind speed and terrain for wind assets, module tilt and shading for PV, as well as data availability and weather-model choice. It also noted relationships with time of day and season. Those factors help explain why a single average error is insufficient for detailed planning.
Where scenarios can help
The report connected simulation to studies of future grids, electromobility and the use of existing plants. Such studies must distinguish modelled scenarios from predictions of what will happen. Their results depend on assumptions about assets, weather, technology and data. This page retains the reported outcome without asserting that the tool is a current standard product, that every planning study uses it or that simulated uncertainty establishes guaranteed operational accuracy.